Episode notes
James Lavish explains why he expects a gradual print to turn into a big one, what weak Treasury auctions signal, and what he got wrong about Bitcoin this cycle.
Timestamps
00:00 — Intro
00:48 — Markets: Warsh, Oil and a Narrow Rally
04:22 — How Much Debt Will AI Need?
08:41 — Outgrowing the Debt: A Polite Fiction
10:50 — Brent at $108, 10-Year at 5.13%
13:44 — Weak Auctions and Who Buys Treasuries
15:54 — Oil Shock: Supply, Not Demand
18:03 — If CoreWeave Trips: The Downside Case
19:56 — How the Fed and Treasury Would Respond
24:15 — The Base Case: Growth and Nominal Inflation
28:49 — Big Print or Gradual Print?
32:58 — Gradual Until All Bets Are Off
34:07 — Why Faith in the Dollar Breaks Slowly
38:11 — What James Got Wrong This Cycle
39:54 — Decentralization and Politics as Hurdles
41:59 — JPMorgan's Shift and Career Risk
43:45 — Why Bitcoin Over AI?
