Episode notes
Uptober came and went. Marty and Baron break down Anthropic's S-1, why hyperscalers are now free cash flow negative, the $6.3 billion Binance hack, and why Bitcoin's simplicity keeps looking like a feature.
In this episode:
- What Anthropic's S-1 does and doesn't tell us about the bull and bear cases
- Where the compute goes: training vs. serving customers
- Junk rating talk and the cost of capital for the AI build out
- Microsoft job cuts and the search for real AI ROI
- Red October, Intel's worst day since 1974, and hedge fund de-grossing
- Big Tech free cash flow turning negative and the debt to GDP reckoning
- Lula's win in Brazil and what it means for the Donroe Doctrine
- The Binance hack and why Bitcoin's small attack surface wins
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Red October that wasn't
00:00:35 - Anthropic S-1 gradually then suddenly
00:02:39 - Enterprise customers and revenue retention
00:05:50 - Amended S-1 and the $895 billion in commitments
00:07:45 - What is all that training compute for
00:12:17 - Labs competing with their own customers
00:16:36 - Anthropic's likely junk credit rating
00:18:23 - Where's the ROI
00:19:39 - Microsoft cuts roughly 60,000 jobs
00:20:58 - Intel's crash and record hedge fund selling
00:23:30 - Hyperscalers go free cash flow negative
00:26:56 - Public debt tops 100% of GDP
00:27:43 - Meta ads vs. Google search
00:29:27 - Lula wins in Brazil
00:32:11 - Binance hack and Bitcoin below $77K
00:35:54 - Bitcoin is worse is better
00:38:12 - AI models find only two minor Bitcoin Core bugs
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