Episode notes
Mentor Sessions EP 109: Lawrence Lepard & Mark Valek on the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Fed Trap, Gold, Silver & Bitcoin
America's debt just blew past $40 trillion, interest now costs more than the entire military budget, and yet gold and Bitcoin are both down on the year. Larry Lepard of Equity Management Associates and Mark Valek of Incrementum explain why the debasement trade stalled and what sets it off again.
In this conversation you'll learn why Valek sees a melting system against Lawrence Lepard's Big Print, why higher short-term rates trap the Fed under fiscal dominance, and which stress signals are flashing right now: European sovereign spreads, commercial real estate delinquencies, AI debt, and private equity funds gating withdrawals. You'll hear why central banks have been net gold buyers every year since 2010 and stepped up their buying after 2022, why Larry thinks Bitcoin already bottomed near $58K, Valek's case for ETF concentration risk, and the market levels both are watching going into 2027.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:08 - Melting System Vs The Big Print
4:07 - The Fed Has No Lever To Fix Inflation
8:52 - Fiat Currency Is A Religion
12:23 - Sovereign Debt Crisis And Extreme Volatility
14:23 - Europe's Credit Spreads Flash A Warning
16:39 - Cracks In AI Debt, Private Credit And Gated Funds
20:16 - They Will Always Choose To Print
23:27 - Hank Paulson's Break The Glass Warning
27:50 - The Fed And Treasury Are Trapped
30:50 - Is A New Bretton Woods Coming?
34:04 - The Money Printer Joke
37:28 - Greenspan: The Power Is Intoxicating
40:27 - Who's Selling Gold To Central Banks?
44:49 - The Third Inning Of The Sovereign Debt Bubble
47:10 - Is Europe The Next Catalyst?
54:42 - Where Bitcoin Stands After The Hacks
57:11 - Does Gold Move Before Bitcoin?
59:03 - Mark's Unpopular Take: Bitcoin ETF Concentration Risk
1:04:45 - Silver Back Below $50 Is A Gift
1:07:03 - Copper, Silver And The Commodity Squeeze
1:10:31 - When Does The Big Print Happen?
1:12:28 - Gold Can't Default
1:14:45 - What To Watch Going Into 2027
Guests: Lawrence "Larry" Lepard (Equity Management Associates, author of The Big Print) and Mark Valek (Incrementum, co-author of the In Gold We Trust report).
Links & Resources:
→ Larry Lepard / EMA free quarterly letter: https://www.ema2.com
→ Follow Lawrence Lepard on X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard
→ Mark Valek / Incrementum: https://www.incrementum.li
→ In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report
→ Follow Mark on X: https://x.com/MarkValek
This is a Mentor Sessions deep-dive for the regulars. Drop your read in the comments: does the Fed print before this bubble deflates, or does the market crack first? Tell us where you're positioned.
⚡Previous Episode:
Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker: https://youtu.be/QCgW8RlTu5Q
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