Episode notes
Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026
Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.
You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.
This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market
1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion
1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation
2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts
3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes
4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%
5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition
6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?
7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?
8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior
9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges
10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?
11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms
13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns
15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like
15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO
18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special
19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction
21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets
23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin
24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget
28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom
30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles
31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money
32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?
33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K
40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense
44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money
53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining
59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right
1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well
Links & Resources:
→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com
→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_
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