Episode notes
Black Monday never showed up. Marty and John Arnold break down why markets shrugged off the weekend scare, and what the data under the surface is saying about AI spending, interest rates, and energy.
In this episode:
- Why Black Monday didn't happen and what markets did instead
- Anthropic's slowing revenue growth and the distillation fight
- Neo clouds, credit stress, and the cost of capital for the AI build out
- Hot inflation prints, the Fed, and bond market volatility
- Whether Treasury cuts 20 year issuance to deal with higher yields
- Diesel shortages, Gulf attacks, and Iran's economy
- China's export surge and what Europe might do about it
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Black Monday that wasn't
00:01:20 - Anthropic revenue growth slows ahead of IPO
00:01:38 - Distillation attacks and the irony of AI IP
00:05:12 - Neo clouds and credit default swaps under pressure
00:06:55 - Cost of capital for the AI build out
00:07:02 - Hot inflation and the Fed
00:07:57 - Ten year yields near 5% and forward guidance
00:10:13 - Convexity Maven on bond volatility and the MOVE index
00:12:57 - Treasury and the 20 year issuance rumor
00:15:39 - War driving up diesel prices
00:18:36 - Carney on maximizing diesel shipments to the US
00:19:27 - Iran GDP collapse and the blockade
00:21:29 - China's 36% export surge in September
00:22:14 - Robin Brooks and Michael Pettis on overproduction
00:24:35 - Jim Himes and bipartisan support for Europe and NATO
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